(Shelf) Life of the Party

The beer world seems to have quieted down about the “bubble” a bit.  A year ago, two maybe, everyone was in flight over how much growth the beer market could handle.  The pool hasn’t gotten less crowded, but it still appears to be accommodating everyone alright.  One reason is that many of the new producers jumping in are not taking up a whole lot of space – here in Pittsburgh, the model seems to be small, walk-in taprooms & brewpubs serving the local area.  There aren’t a whole lot more bottles from Pittsburgh brewers crowding up the shelves & getting distribution far & wide.  Much like the small, house-only wineries of which there are thousands & thousands, the new stripe of brewer is finding their niche with on-site sales & a few draft accounts, keeping things very artisanal & boutique.  Locals CoStar Brewing penned an eloquent blog entry to this point recently.  CoStar are a great example of this local nano model; incidentally (& fittingly) they’re not that far away from us at all, yet I’ve never had any of their beer.  Nothing against them – I’d love to get a taste, but they just haven’t crossed my path yet.  Maybe they’d be interesting in sending some kegs our way, but if we’re outside of their territory, that’s cool, too.  If they’re into just supplying the immediate vicinity, we’re in the next county over.  I get it, & more power.

So the supply end may be more mindful & self-regulatory than we’d realized.  How about the demand?  Craft beer fans are thirsty.  When I got into this hobby, Pittsburgh had one beer festival a year ( Sharp Edge’s Great European Beer Festival), that by definition did not include any local brewers – or any American brewers, for that matter.  This year, it’s seemed like every other weekend there’s been something beery happening somewhere.  Last week saw Beers of the Burgh – the second Pitt-centric fest this year, no less – a great idea that I’m glad has become worth doing.  The festivals are going strong, & almost always sell out in a short time.  The fans are much more numerous, & thus much more competitive.  Big Pour has sold out in minutes for years. 

So yeah, the festival atmosphere is just one sign that things are heating up.  There are also the crazy special releases, here & (moreso) abroad, that folks line up & camp out for.  The media coverage, with more stories devoted to craft beer in magazines, newsprint, television, & on-line outlets.  More folks are treating craft beer as a hobby, & the numbers on Untappd are way beyond what I would’ve anticipated a few years ago.  And then there’s Pittsburgh Craft Beer Week, Pennsylvania Craft Beer Week, American Craft Beer Week, IPA Day, Stout Day, & probably some other landmark “events” I’m overlooking. 

You get the gist, right?  So maybe the growth in supply seems sustainable given the current demand, but when does the demand trail off?  I’ll make the distinction again that, while not necessarily a fad, craft beer is definitely a trend, on the rise & getting more popular.  The “bubble” may not be a drastic deflation in popularity & sales, just a slowing in the rise, eventually plateauing.  The goal of “20% by 2020” – that is, craft beer getting 20% share of the US beer market by the year 2020 – has been thrown around.  An ambitious target, for sure, but one that I’d love to see reached. 

I don’t think 20% is unrealistic (though maybe not in the next six years), but I do have a hard time believing that the current fervor is sustainable.  Right now, everyone is enjoying riding that wave, but I can see the excitement reaching a pitch & dying down.  Beer blogger & notorious contrarian/curmudgeon Andrian “Ding” Dingle has cited the numerous festivals, “beer weeks”, & other antics as indicators that America, while its passion is undeniable, doesn’t really have much of an entrenched beer culture.  There are the hardcore craft fans, & the majority of the country still drinks mass-produced & -marketed industrialized lager.  There’s little middle class.  Rather than being ingrained into everyday life (as in Ding’s home of the UK), craft beer in the US is still largely fireworks & carnivals – you don’t need a “Craft Beer Week” if the public has embraced it as a whole.  It would be just part of the culture & seen as normal, unquestioned, & not needing promotion & celebration.

I agree with Ding, to an extent.  Riding this wave is fun right now, but my hope is that we see a plateau rather than a crash.  I think there’s possibility for people to embrace good beer as a given in daily life, & maybe five years from now, maybe more, it won’t be something we have to seek out & treat as special.    We might be able to go to any restaurant with a liquor license & order from a list of twenty or forty good beers.  If the festivals are still happening (which I hope), tickets sales might last more than twenty minutes.  The local breweries will stay afloat, serving their people & making a quality product consistently enough that people see they don’t have to go nuts.  The on-line media will stop writing contrarian-for-contrarian’s-sake pieces.  The fiendish hunting will die down, & normal people will get a chance to drink everything again.   And the hardcore contingent will have to chill out a bit, not acting like crazy, entitled assholes if they don’t get their way.  The lines will get shorter.  The party’s gotta end sometime – let’s just hope everyone keeps the promises they made the next morning.  Life will go on, & the beer will still flow.  And it will be good.